Danielle Hale of Realtor.com reports that existing home sales rose 4.2% in February 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, though they still trailed last year’s pace by 1.2%. Despite high mortgage rates—averaging nearly 7%—and affordability challenges, buyer-seller activity remains resilient. Median home prices climbed 3.8% year-over-year while listing price growth softened.

Source: Realtor.com (March 2025)

“Home sales are expected to exceed 2024’s long-term low, according to the Realtor.com 2025 Housing Forecast. While February sales slipped behind their year-ago pace, settling mortgage rates are teeing up the possibility of a reverse of 2024’s rate trend, which could be a positive for the busy late spring and early summer sales season, which will set the tone for 2025.”

Skylar Olsen of Zillow reports that inventory climbed to 1.24 million units, up 17% year-over-year. Despite similar mortgage rates to 2024, cautious buyers are holding back due to affordability challenges, insurance costs, and low household savings. Although February outperformed Zillow’s forecasted 5.8% drop, the recovery in home sales is expected to remain slow, with only a modest 1.1% annual gain projected for 2025.

Source: Zillow (March 2025)

Dana Anderson of Redfin reports its data showing that despite rising early-stage homebuying activity, pending sales remain sluggish, down 5.2% year-over-year, as near-record housing costs continue to strain affordability. The typical monthly mortgage payment sits at $2,793—shy of an all-time high—driven by a 3.3% rise in home prices and a 6.65% average mortgage rate. While many buyers are touring homes and applying for loans, they hesitate to commit.

Fannie & Freddie

David Hollerith of Yahoo! News reports that shares of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae surged over 8% amid speculation that the Trump administration may reduce federal control of the mortgage giants. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that the government’s stakes in Fannie and Freddie could be transferred to a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund. An executive order is also under consideration to explore privatization options, fueling investor optimism and boosting stock prices for both entities.

Eleanor Mueller of Semafor reports that top executives at Freddie Mac, including CEO Diana Reid and HR head Dionne Wallace Oakley, were fired last week as FHFA Director Bill Pulte accelerates his sweeping overhaul of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This follows earlier dismissals of other senior figures, including Freddie Mac’s EVP of Strategy and FHFA’s COO. Pulte, a former private equity executive, recently named himself chair of both boards, signaling a consolidation of power.

Keith Griffith of Realtor.com reports that the firings are part of a larger push by the Trump administration to revive efforts to privatize mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While no immediate operational changes have occurred, the dismissals signal a potential shift away from the government conservatorship that has been in place since 2008. Privatization could benefit shareholders and reduce regulatory oversight, but experts caution it may lead to higher mortgage rates for homebuyers

Finally, Martha McHardy of Newsweek reports that over 700 California condos have landed on a so-called “mortgage blacklist” maintained by Fannie Mae, making them ineligible for conventional loans and potentially harder to sell. This unofficial list targets high-risk properties due to insufficient insurance, poor maintenance, or inadequate reserve funds—concerns heightened since the 2021 Surfside condo collapse. While Fannie Mae doesn’t issue loans directly, its refusal to back these properties can significantly limit financing options

Lumber and tariffs

Robert Frank of CNBC reports that tariff fears are already driving up construction costs by as much as 20%, according to Related Group CEO Jon Paul Pérez. With President Trump imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico—and broader levies expected by April 2—contractors are padding bids on new developments in anticipation of higher material costs. Pérez warns this could add thousands to the cost of new homes, compounding affordability issues in an already pricey housing market.

Indeed, Alex Veiga and Mae Anderson of AP News report that new tariffs on lumber, appliances, and other imported goods from Canada, Mexico, and China are driving up construction and renovation costs, adding an estimated $7,500 to $10,000 to the price of a single-family home. Builders and remodelers are already passing these costs onto consumers just as the spring housing season begins. Companies in San Francisco are increasing prices by up to 12%, while suppliers warn that tariffs could have long-term inflationary effects. 

Source: Madison’s (March 2025)

Mrinalika Roy and Seher Dareen of Reuters report that President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber—potentially raising duties to 40%—may accelerate the Canadian industry’s shift to the U.S. South and push for new export markets. The decades-long trade dispute has prompted many Canadian producers, including Canfor and Weyerhaeuser, to move operations south due to lower log costs, easier access to private land, and fewer regulatory hurdles. The U.S. South now leads in softwood lumber capacity, with Canadian firms owning over 50 mills in the region—a dramatic rise from just two in 2004.

Jesse Wade of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports that U.S. sawmill production capacity remained flat in 2024, despite continued expansion in potential output. Capacity utilization fell to 64.7% in Q4, reflecting a growing gap between what sawmills can produce and what they are producing. While overall capacity has increased since 2015, actual output remains below 2018 levels, constrained by factors like weak lumber demand and declining employment, which hit its lowest point since 2021.

Pat Maio of OC Register reports that Southern California builders are reevaluating projects as the April 2 rollout of new Trump administration tariffs threatens to raise construction material costs by over $3 billion. With Canadian lumber tariffs set to hit nearly 40%, developers are already seeing rising prices for essentials like lumber and gypsum. Some major projects—including a $150 million mixed-use development in L.A. County—are being delayed or canceled due to cost uncertainty.