Barney Henderson of Newsweek reports that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that tariff policy risks pushing the U.S. into a recession, fueling inflation, and straining vital international alliances. In his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon called the Trump administration’s minimum 10% import tariffs—especially those targeting China and the EU—a potential trigger for a global trade war, noting that “some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse.”

Augusta Saraiva of Bloomberg reports that U.S. consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February—barely beating January’s slump—while a key inflation gauge ticked higher, signaling economic trouble. Notably, Americans cut back on services spending for the first time in three years, raising concerns that inflation and trade pressures could further erode growth.

Chloe Taylor of CNBC reports that Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned tariffs have pushed U.S. recession risks to an “uncomfortably high” level, with growth potentially slowing to as low as 1%. El-Erian said markets are underestimating both the inflationary impact of the tariffs and their global ripple effects, cautioning that the U.S. may not see even one rate cut this year.

That said, Douglas Gillison of USA Today reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed recession fears tied to the new tariffs, claiming that there’s “no reason” to expect a downturn and highlighting that over 50 countries have initiated trade talks with the U.S. since the policy’s rollout. Despite markets shedding nearly $6 trillion in value, Bessent argued the tariffs gave Trump “maximum leverage” in reshaping global trade.

According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve, the estimate for 2025 Q1 U.S. GDP growth is now -2.8%, up from -3.7% on April 1. 

Source: Atlanta Fed (April 2025)

Finally, Amanda Cooper of Reuters reports that the yield curve (one of the Federal Reserve’s key recession indicators) has deteriorated at its fastest pace since 2008, signaling mounting fears of an economic downturn triggered by Trump’s new tariffs. The yield spread between three-month T-bills and their 18-month outlook dropped to -113 basis points, marking its most significant one-day move since the global financial crisis. JPMorgan has increased the U.S. recession’s likelihood to 60%, citing escalating trade tensions.

Source: Reuters (April 2025)

Lower rates

Joel Berner of Realtor.com reports that mortgage rates dropped again this week to 6.64%, but the real market impact of sweeping new tariffs is still unfolding. While falling Treasury yields suggest rates may continue to drop, uncertainty is creeping into the housing market as investors flee stocks and homebuyers reassess their financial footing. The coming weeks will reveal whether lower rates can sustain recent momentum in home sales—or if tariff-driven economic anxiety will cool buyer demand.

Source: Realtor.com (April 2025)

Diana Olick of CNBC reports that housing costs remain near record highs despite mortgage rates dropping to the lowest since October. Despite the rate dip, the typical monthly payment hit $2,802, with home prices up 3.4% year-over-year. While listings are rising, affordability remains out of reach for most buyers, as inventory growth is concentrated above the price points where demand is highest.

Sarah Wolak of HousingWire reports that mortgage rates hit their lowest point of 2025 following the new tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day,” with the 30-year fixed dropping to annual lows and the 15-year to 6.05%. Experts say the market’s adverse reaction to the tariff plan drives the rate shift, with investors fleeing stocks and pushing bond yields and mortgage rates down. Despite stable jobless claims, analysts warn that economic uncertainty from the tariffs is weighing heavily on future outlooks.

Similarly, Kara Ng of Zillow reports that mortgage rates remain near December lows amid ongoing economic uncertainty, with anxiety over tariffs dampening consumer and business sentiment. While this dip may trigger an early start to the spring home shopping season, experts caution buyers to focus on long-term needs, as home price appreciation is expected to stay muted through 2025.

That said, Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao comments: “Even in times of great economic uncertainty, there are people who need to move. For those weary homebuyers, this drop in mortgage rates could be a silver lining of this week’s historic tariffs announcement…However, a word of caution for the general public: This is a wait-and-see moment. Tariffs and the fallout we’ve already seen in the stock market are impacting the economy and could create more volatility in the housing market.” 

Fannie Mae’s latest forecast suggests mortgage rates will decline to 6.3% by the end of 2025 and 6.2% in 2026, prompting a slight upgrade to its existing home sales outlook. While overall market activity remains muted, Chief Economist Mark Palim notes that lower rates could spur hesitant buyers into action, even as broader economic growth slows amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty.

Condos

Lily Katz and Asad Khan of Redfin report that the U.S. condo market shows signs of strain, with 68% of condos sold in February going for below list price—the highest share in five years. Driven by rising HOA fees, soaring insurance costs, and increased inventory, condos have become less attractive to buyers, especially in places like Florida, where nearly 85% of units sold below asking. Townhouses and single-family homes are also seeing a rise in price negotiations. Still, the shift is most dramatic in the condo sector, which is inching closer to pre-pandemic norms.

Source: Redfin (April 2025)

Katz and Khan note that this softening market could present an opportunity for buyers as sale prices decline and sellers offer concessions. Buyers may now find deals that were out of reach just months ago. However, for sellers, the authors note that realistically pricing a condo from the start is more important than ever, as lingering listings are turning off increasingly cautious buyers.

Jeff Vasishta of Yahoo! Finance reports that thousands of condo owners across the U.S. have been blindsided by a secret mortgage “blacklist” maintained by Fannie Mae, which effectively blocks them from selling their homes. The list—now at over 5,000 properties—has quietly grown since the 2021 Surfside condo collapse and flags buildings deemed to need significant repairs or lacking adequate insurance. While Fannie Mae denies it’s a formal blacklist, the stricter underwriting guidelines have led to more onerous insurance requirements and reduced loan access, particularly in states like Florida, California, and Hawaii.

Tamara Chuang of the Colorado Sun reports that a growing number of Colorado condos are becoming unsellable due to stricter Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lending standards tied to high insurance deductibles and deferred maintenance, often unknowingly triggered by HOAs trying to keep monthly fees low. With property insurance costs surging, many HOAs are raising deductibles above the 5% threshold, putting their communities on a secret mortgage “blacklist” that disqualifies them from conventional loans. Colorado now ranks third in the U.S. for affected properties.

Source: Colorado Sun (April 2025)

Indeed, Giulia Carbonaro of Newsweek reports that Florida’s condo market is entering “uncharted territory” as soaring HOA fees and insurance costs, coupled with new building safety laws, drive a wave of listings and steep price cuts. In February, over 92% of Miami condos sold below their original list price—the highest rate in the country—mirrored by similar trends in other Florida cities like Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.