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How the government shutdown impacts real estate markets

How the government shutdown impacts real estate markets
by Brad Cartier, posted in Newsletter

Diana Olick of CNBC reports that the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, has significant repercussions for commercial real estate. While its effects are not immediate, the shutdown causes delays in government data collection, heightening uncertainty in financial markets, reducing investor confidence, and complicating CRE transactions. Sectors most impacted include retail, hospitality, and senior housing, with consumer demand falling due to furloughed federal workers. Moreover, government-backed leasing and financing, such as HUD and GSA, are delayed, affecting both federal and private CRE markets. 

Dana Anderson of Redfin reports that 17% of Americans are delaying major purchases like homes or cars due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, with an additional 7% canceling these plans. Despite these concerns, 65% of Americans are undeterred and moving forward with their purchases. The survey, which included 1,005 participants, highlights that the primary reasons for delays are economic uncertainty and direct impacts on federal employees, including 2 million workers who are furloughed or working without pay. 

Government shutdown

Source: Redfin (October 2025)

Danielle Hale of Realtor.com reports that the ongoing shutdown is disrupting housing data and may delay home closings. Despite these setbacks, mortgage rates remain stable, dropping below 6.5% for the fifth week. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have provided guidance to lenders to mitigate disruptions. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has resumed work on the crucial September inflation report, offering the Federal Reserve more data ahead of its next meeting. 

Shannon McGahn of HousingWire reports that with real estate representing nearly 20% of the U.S. economy, the shutdown impacts vital services such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which covers $1.3 trillion in policies and affects around 1,400 property transactions daily. FHA loan endorsements face delays, USDA has halted new loans, and HUD programs are operating with reduced staff, delaying rental assistance and community development funding. These interruptions complicate financing for first-time and low-income buyers and slow homebuilding efforts.

ROAD to Housing Act

Sarah Wolak of HousingWire reports that the Senate has passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2026, which includes the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act (S. 2651). This legislation addresses housing affordability by increasing housing supply and reducing regulatory barriers. The bill now moves to the House for further consideration, following support from 28 housing groups that called for its inclusion.

Paul Bubny of ConnectCRE reports that the bill now awaits House consideration after the government shutdown. Industry leaders, including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the National Multifamily Housing Council, hailed the bill as a significant step toward addressing the housing crisis by cutting red tape, expanding access to affordable mortgages, and increasing housing supply. The bill has garnered widespread support as a crucial solution to the nation’s ongoing housing challenges.

MBA’s President and CEO Bob Broeksmit released the following statement following the Senate’s inclusion and passage of the ROAD to Housing Act of 2025: 

“The Senate’s passage of the ROAD to Housing Act is a win for housing affordability and consumers. Many of the provisions within the bipartisan measure are aimed to take meaningful steps to boost housing supply, cut red tape in federal program offerings, and expand access to affordable mortgage credit for families nationwide…As the bill moves to the House, MBA will stay fully engaged with Congressional leaders in both chambers to strengthen key provisions – including those dealing with lender liability and second appraisals – to ensure the final package delivers meaningful results for consumers, lenders, and the communities they serve.”

Elayne Weiss of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that this comprehensive bill targets key barriers to housing affordability, including zoning restrictions and lengthy environmental reviews, to increase housing supply. It includes provisions for smaller mortgages, streamlined home appraisals, and enhanced savings programs for prospective homeowners, particularly veterans. The bill also supports innovation in housing construction by updating rules for manufactured and modular homes and encouraging affordable building technologies. Additionally, it permanently authorizes disaster recovery efforts and incorporates resilience measures for communities affected by natural disasters. 

AI usage in home searches

Hannah Jones of Realtor.com reports that a recent survey reveals that 82% of Americans are now using AI for housing market insights, reflecting a shift in how consumers gather information in an unpredictable market. ChatGPT (67%) and Gemini (54%) are the leading AI platforms, with many buyers excited about AI’s ability to personalize their home search. Despite the growing use of AI, real estate agents remain the most trusted source of information, with 62% of respondents rating them as the most reliable. 

“When asked which sources make them “smarter” about the market, real estate agents led (62%), followed by AI (61%), traditional media, and social platforms. Agents were also rated the most accurate source of market information, ahead of AI, family and friends, and the news. According to those surveyed, amid all of these information sources, the majority felt that time spent navigating each source for more information about the market was a good use of time.”

AI real estate usage

Source: Realtor.com (October 2025)

The survey highlights that, while new information sources are becoming more popular, many consumers still find that family, social media, and TV content often do not apply to their specific market. This underscores the continued importance of expert guidance in navigating today’s challenging housing market.

Philip Russo of Commercial Observer reports that a survey from investment platform Dealpath reveals that while real estate investors are increasingly eager to adopt artificial intelligence (AI), many organizations lack the internal expertise to implement it fully. Of the 100 institutional investors surveyed, 96% plan to increase AI investment, but 93% face challenges such as a lack of in-house knowledge, regulatory concerns, budget limitations, and fragmented data. Despite these barriers, 36% are scaling AI solutions, and 43% already use AI tools like ChatGPT for basic tasks. The survey also found that 98% of investors prioritize improving data infrastructure for AI, with key uses including document analysis, portfolio monitoring, and investment memo creation. 

Finally, Zillow announced it has launched the Zillow App in ChatGPT, allowing users to start their home search via conversational AI, with direct access to MLS-sourced listings. This integration marks a significant expansion of Zillow’s listing reach while ensuring full compliance with industry rules, such as MLS attribution and IDX standards. The app allows users to explore homes, neighborhoods, and affordability, and provides access to a range of listing types, including rentals and for-sale homes. Zillow worked closely with OpenAI to maintain data privacy, ensuring that MLS data is not transmitted to OpenAI or used for AI training.

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