Brooklee Han of HousingWire reports that the $418M antitrust settlement between the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and plaintiffs in the commission lawsuit was granted final approval on November 27, 2024. However, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) raised concerns about the settlement’s mandatory buyer representation agreements, arguing they could limit competition among brokers and resemble previous antitrust violations. 

Dave Gallagher of Real Estate News comments on the update from the DOJ, noting that its recent filing casts uncertainty over the NAR’s settlement by challenging mandatory buyer-agent agreements, a central component of the deal. The DOJ warned that these agreements could harm competition by limiting buyer options and suggested that the policy be scrapped entirely. While U.S. District Court Judge Stephen Bough is expected to approve the settlement without significant changes, the DOJ emphasized it does not shield the industry from future litigation. According to Gallagher, this puts agents in a dilemma: comply with the settlement’s rules, risk DOJ lawsuits, or avoid the agreements and face non-compliance.

Samantha Delouya of CNN reports on this new development, highlighting that NAR responded strongly to the DOJ’s last-minute objections, emphasizing that the settlement’s approval is pivotal for the real estate industry. While the DOJ raised concerns about mandatory buyer-broker agreements potentially violating antitrust laws, NAR defended the agreement, stating it provides clarity and benefits to consumers while complying with legal standards.

The Real Deal comments on the story, noting that the DOJ clarified that the NAR Sitzer/Burnett settlement is not a safeguard against future antitrust enforcement. In a Statement of Interest filed two days before the final approval, the DOJ called for clarification that the settlement does not exempt NAR from accountability under antitrust laws. 

Home buying demand

Early-stage homebuying demand has surged to its highest level in 15 months, with Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index rising 17% year-over-year—the most significant jump since January 2022. Dana Anderson reports that this uptick follows the Fed’s second consecutive interest rate cut and the post-election market stabilization despite mortgage rates remaining at 6.78%. Pending home sales rose 4.5% year-over-year, while new listings increased marginally.

Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao comments:

“The burst of buyers and sellers jumping into the market is the result of pent-up demand from people who were waiting for the election to pass, and for the Fed to cut interest rates a second time…Even though mortgage rates have been rising since both of those things happened, house hunters who had pressed pause are jumping back in. Now we’re keeping a close eye on whether this is a short post-election boom, or if it translates into a steady improvement in pending sales.”

Dana Anderson and Sheharyar Bokhari of Redfin also report on investor purchases, which have reportedly plateaued. Investor home purchases fell 2% year-over-year in Q3, marking a return to pre-pandemic stability after years of wild swings. Florida saw double-digit declines amid climate and insurance issues, while Las Vegas and Seattle posted gains. Investors accounted for 16% of home sales, focusing mainly on low-priced homes, with condo purchases dropping 11%, driven largely by Florida.

Source: Redfin (December 2024)

According to Bokhari, “Investors are finding a balance after several years of whiplash: They bought up homes at a frenzied pace in 2021 and the beginning of 2022, then quickly backed off when the housing market slowed as mortgage rates rose…Now there’s a middle ground. It’s less appealing to buy homes to flip or rent out than it was at the start of the pandemic, when demand from both homebuyers and renters was robust. But it’s more appealing than it was last year, when soaring home prices and borrowing costs put a big damper on demand.”

Data from Hannah Jones of Realtor.com shows that pending home sales rose 2% in October as buyers capitalized on early-month mortgage rates near 6.1%, though rates climbed to 6.7% by month’s end. While new-home sales dropped sharply due to affordability concerns, contract signings increased across all regions, with the West seeing the most significant annual gain (+16.8%). Persistent buyers face less competition and more inventory heading into winter, offering opportunities ahead of the spring market.

Skylar Olsen of Zillow reports on this topic, highlighting that homebuyers gained leverage in October as competition eased nationwide, with Zillow’s market heat index edging closer to a buyer’s market. Rising mortgage rates near 7%, seasonal market cooling, and recovering inventory levels—particularly in the South and metros like Texas and Florida—are key drivers. Cities like Pittsburgh, Louisville, Indianapolis, and Nashville now favor buyers in negotiations.

Source: Zillow (December 2024)

That said, according to an analysis from Fannie Mae, existing home sales are projected to rise just 4% in 2025, revised down from an earlier forecast of 11%, due to higher mortgage rates now expected to stay above 6% through 2026. Fannie Mae’s ESR Group predicts a 17% rebound in 2026 as affordability improves and pent-up demand releases. Meanwhile, new home sales are expected to grow steadily in 2025 and 2026, supported by builder incentives.

Prices

According to the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index, home price growth slowed to 3.9% year-over-year in September, marking the sixth month of deceleration, driven by high mortgage rates and inflation fatigue. Western markets saw the sharpest declines, while affordable areas like the Midwest and Desert West continued to post gains. The Index predicts further cooling, with growth slowing to 2.3% by August 2025, as housing affordability remains strained by elevated mortgage costs and inflation-adjusted price increases.

Source: CoreLogic (December 2024)

“Historically, home prices tend to increase in the early fall. However, it’s worth noting that changes to real estate agent fees took effect in August which could be having some impact on the comparatively larger declines in markets where median home prices are higher. Although home prices fell by 0.1% nationally from August to September, there were 13 metros that recorded weak monthly gains. Cleveland and Phoenix recorded the largest monthly increases. Also, Cleveland, Detroit, Washington D.C., and Chicago saw stronger price gains than their pre-pandemic averages in September.”

Aarthi Swaminathan of Realtor.com comments on the top 20 metros, highlighting that home prices rose 4.6% year-over-year in September, slowing from 5.2% the previous month, the weakest growth since September 2023. The Northeast and Midwest saw the strongest gains, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago, while Denver posted the smallest increase at 0.2%. Further cooling is expected as mortgage rates rise.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its House Price Index (FHFA HPI), showing that house prices rose 4.3% year-over-year in Q3 2024, with a 0.7% increase from Q2, continuing a slowdown in growth due to high prices and mortgage rates. Prices increased in 49 states, led by Hawaii (+10.4%), while the District of Columbia and Louisiana saw declines. Miami posted the largest metro gain (+10.8%), while North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL, experienced the steepest decline (-6.4%).

Skylar Olsen of Zillow reports on its 2025 housing predictions, noting that it forecasts home values will grow modestly by 2.6% as inventory increases, giving buyers more leverage and options. While affordability challenges persist, smaller homes are expected to gain popularity as buyers prioritize sustainability and affordability. Mortgage rates are predicted to fluctuate, with potential dips fueling market activity. Buyer markets are likely to expand to the Southwest, driven by inventory recovery in affordable areas, though significant rate drops could shift negotiating power back to sellers.