Last Updated on September 11, 2026

For the first time in Redfin’s records going back to 2013, U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by 58%. Housing supply just hit a 6-year high. Ten Sun Belt metros now have more than twice as many sellers as buyers. If you have cash and pre-approval, the negotiating table just tilted your way. Here is the data, the geography, and what to do with it.

The 58% headline

Redfin’s August 2026 Buyers vs. Sellers report shows 1.53 million estimated home sellers against 972,300 buyers nationally, a 57.9% surplus (rounded to 58%). That is the biggest gap Redfin has ever measured. The prior record was 52.1% in July; December 2025 held the mark before that at 47%.

The mechanics behind the jump are simple. Sellers rose 3.9% month over month, the biggest monthly increase in Redfin’s data. Buyers rose 0.1%. When one side of the market accelerates and the other stalls, the gap widens fast. It has now widened for three straight months.

“With sellers piling into the market and demand falling flat, today’s house hunters can afford to be choosy,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “In most markets, buyers should negotiate on price and ask for concessions like repairs or help with closing costs.”

Supply also just hit a 6-year high

The seller surplus is not just about buyers pulling back; it is about new inventory flooding in. Redfin’s early-September market update showed new listings hit 383,795 in late August, the highest level in four years and up 8% YoY. Active listings reached 1.51 million, and months of supply climbed to 4 (the balanced-market floor).

For context, the last time supply looked like this was 2019. Everything after that was a pandemic-driven seller’s market. The reset is done.

The Sun Belt is doing all the work

The national number understates how lopsided this is by geography. All 10 of the strongest buyer’s markets are in the Sun Belt:

• Nashville, TN: 139% more sellers than buyers (17,440 sellers vs. 7,287 buyers). Biggest gap in the country.
• Miami, FL: 138% more sellers (18,916 vs. 7,939).
• Houston, TX: 131% more sellers (46,759 vs. 20,250).
• Orlando, FL: 122% more sellers, biggest monthly increase in the country (jumped from 100% in July).
• Las Vegas, NV: 117% more sellers (up from 102% in July).
• San Antonio, TX: 116% more sellers.
• Austin, TX: 115% more sellers.
• Dallas, TX: 108% more sellers.
• Atlanta, GA: 96% more sellers.
• Phoenix, AZ: 95% more sellers.

Four of the top 10 are in Texas. Nashville, Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas and Dallas all set individual records this month.

Why the Sun Belt specifically? Redfin points to active homebuilding pipelines. Newly built homes keep entering these markets even as local demand cools because affordability has cracked. In Miami, add rising insurance costs, HOA fees, and climate risk to the mix. New supply is meeting soft demand, and the gap widens.

Where the seller’s markets still are

Only five metros are still seller’s markets, and they are all supply-constrained places where new construction has been strangled for a decade:

• Nassau County, NY: 28% fewer sellers than buyers.
• Newark, NJ: 21% fewer.
• Montgomery County, PA: 20% fewer.
• Milwaukee, WI: 18% fewer.
• San Francisco, CA: 12% fewer (only the second month in four years SF has been a seller’s market, thanks to the AI wealth wave).

Home prices in these five markets rose 5.5% YoY in August. Across the 36 buyer’s markets, they rose just 1.6%. Geography is everything right now.

What operators should actually do

Four moves that make sense with this data in hand:

1. Underwrite at 92-95% of list plus $8-15K in concessions. The national sale-to-list ratio is 98.7%, but that reflects a mix of homes that sold quickly with no negotiation and homes that sat before closing well below list. In buyer’s markets, the negotiated portion is where you live. If you’re looking in Nashville, Houston, Miami, or the Texas metros, model your offer with a real haircut and a real concession ask. Twenty-one percent of sellers are already cutting price on their own; the ones you’re bidding on know.
2. Ask for repair credits, not just price cuts. Repair credits at closing typically flow to your P&L as immediate operating expenses when you actually do the work (assuming you’re not capitalizing the improvement). Price reductions just lower your basis, which helps you slowly through depreciation. Given the choice, a repair credit is worth more in year-one cash flow terms.
3. Push on rate buydowns from sellers. With the 30-year fixed at a 15-month high of 6.76% (Freddie Mac PMMS), a 2-1 buydown funded by the seller can drop your effective rate to 4.76% in year one. That is the difference between negative cash flow at close and positive cash flow. Sellers in buyer’s markets are increasingly willing.
4. Stay disciplined; not every listing is a buyer’s market. Redfin notes that well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods are still attracting bidding wars, with 25.5% of homes selling above list. The gap is real in aggregate; it is not universal. Assume a hard negotiation on a stale listing, but expect a competitive process on a fresh, well-priced one.

One caution for sellers

If you own a property you’re trying to sell into any of the top buyer’s markets, Khan’s advice to sellers is worth reading twice: “Work harder to stand out. Take stock of how other homes are priced, make sure your home is prepped and be prepared to negotiate. With so many competing listings, sellers who want to find a buyer quickly should price competitively from the start.” Overpricing in a 139%-surplus market is a fast way to become one of the 21% cutting price sixty days in.

The bottom line

The buyer’s market that has been building since May 2024 just crossed a real threshold. Sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margin in Redfin’s history, supply is at a six-year high, and the Sun Belt is doing the heavy lifting. If you’ve been waiting to add to your portfolio, this is the leverage moment. If you’ve been sitting on a listing, price it right the first time.