Last Updated on July 17, 2026
Catherina Gioino of Fortune reported that for the first time since at least 1974, new homes are selling for less than existing ones. In the first quarter of 2026, the median price of a new single-family home was $403,200, roughly $1,400 below the median existing home price of $404,600, according to NAHB data drawn from Census Bureau and NAR figures. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which existing home prices have exceeded new home prices, a streak that began in Q2 2024.
Source: Fortune (July 2026)
That said, John Burns Research & Consulting put the shift in even sharper terms, noting that the new-home premium over existing homes, which has averaged 16% going back to 1987, fell to negative 2% as of April 2026. That is the first time the premium has gone negative in data stretching back five decades. As the firm summed it up, the premium is negative for the first time ever, and there are deals right now.
Further, Robert Dietz of NAHB reported that 37% of builders cut prices in July, up from 35% in June and 32% in May, with the average price reduction holding at 6%. The share of builders using sales incentives rose to 63%, the 16th consecutive month at or above 60%. Builder confidence itself slipped two points to 34, staying below the 50 breakeven line for a 27th straight month.
However, Sarah Wolak of HousingWire reported that the incentive machine is not enough to overcome affordability pressure. Builders are running larger promotions than at any point in the current cycle, yet the July HMI reading of 34 shows sentiment stuck near multi-year lows. Sales expectations for the next six months dropped two points to 43, and the traffic of prospective buyers gauge slid two points to 23, its weakest reading since April.
Meanwhile, Diana Olick of CNBC reported that pending home sales fell 5.4% in June from May, well below analyst expectations, while NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun blamed the highest mortgage rates in nearly a year combined with the record national median price for a tepid market that is especially difficult for first-time buyers. Existing-home prices continue to grind higher because supply remains constrained, even as the new-home market visibly softens on the same affordability squeeze.
Redfin reported that the median existing home sale price rose 2.2% year over year in June to an all-time high of $408,776, with San Francisco and West Palm Beach leading the gains. Pending sales reached their second-highest level since 2023, while new listings trended lower for the seventh straight month. That resale strength on the sell side is exactly what is holding the used-home price line above new construction.
Finally, RealEstateNews.com reported that Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant expects the coming Silver Tsunami of boomer home sales to boost inventory and ease price growth in select Rust Belt and Midwest markets, though the overall national effect will be modest. Redfin research shows empty-nest boomers own 28% of U.S. homes with three or more bedrooms, versus just 16% for millennials with children. For investors, the takeaway is direct: the new-construction discount is real in the South and gets larger going West, while the Northeast and Midwest still carry meaningful new-home premiums. Portfolio buyers should be pricing to that regional split, not the national median.
What you should be reading:
- U.S. Home Prices Hit All-Time High, Driven in Part By Big Upticks in San Francisco and West Palm Beach – Redfin
- 70% of Major US Metros Are Buyer’s Markets in June – Redfin
- A New Law Limits Mega-Investor Home Purchases. Will That Actually Help Buyers? – CNN
- Here’s Why the Housing Market Is Hurting So Much This Summer – CNBC
- Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Level in Almost a Year – Fox Business
