Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin of Axios report that while May’s jobs report showed a headline gain of 139,000 payroll jobs, deeper metrics reveal a cooling labor market. Job growth in 2025 has slowed to a monthly average of 124,000, down from 168,000 in 2024, and prior months’ gains were revised downward by 95,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, but a sharp drop of 625,000 people from the labor force brought the employment-to-population ratio down to 59.7%, the lowest over three years.
Jeff Cox of CNBC reports that U.S. payrolls beat expectations, but are down from April’s revised 147,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while wages grew faster than expected, up 0.4% for the month and 3.9% year-over-year. Nearly half of the new jobs came from health care (+62,000), with leisure and hospitality (+48,000) also contributing. Despite the upbeat headline, downward revisions to March and April totaling 95,000 and a 22,000-job loss in government point to potential soft spots beneath the surface.
Source: CNBC (June 2025)
As such, Ann Saphir of Reuters reports that the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its June meeting. May’s jobs report showed that the labor market is cooling but not collapsing. Employers added 139,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%, reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see approach amid rising tariffs and policy uncertainty. Financial markets now anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, though the odds of a third have declined. While President Trump has called for a full-point cut, Fed officials like Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker remain cautious, pointing to solid, if slowing, job growth and limited sector breadth.
Indeed, Logan Mohtashami of HousingWire reports that despite May’s stronger than expected job growth of 139,000, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates, as labor market conditions aren’t weak enough to justify such a move. While there were downward revisions of 95,000 jobs over the past two months and signs of cooling, the data still points to resilience, offering little reason for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to follow President Trump’s call for a 1% rate cut. Borrowing costs will likely remain elevated for the housing market, continuing to pressure affordability and buyer demand.
Danielle Hale of Realtor.com reports that May’s job gains and a steady unemployment rate suggest a stable labor market, which is good news for housing. Wage growth ticked up, outpacing inflation and offering some relief to buyers. Realtor.com data shows over 1 million homes for sale for the first time since 2019, but rising price cuts reveal sellers struggling to meet buyer budgets. While homebuilding in some areas is helping boost inventory, sustained affordability will depend on continued wage gains and more construction at attainable price points.
Federal updates
Kevin Breuninger and Jeff Cox of CNBC report that President Trump is pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slash interest rates by a full percentage point—even after May’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, which showed 139,000 new hires and 3.9% annual wage growth. Trump argues U.S. borrowing costs should match European rate cuts, calling for “Rocket Fuel” to boost the economy and lower national debt costs. But with unemployment steady at 4.2% and inflation risks tied to Trump’s tariffs, markets see little chance of a cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
Kriston Capps of Bloomberg reports that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is facing heightened risks of fraud, litigation, and operational breakdowns due to mass staff departures following cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). An internal memo warns that 39% of HUD’s legal staff, and 43% in field offices, have exited since January, jeopardizing critical housing functions like loan underwriting, mortgage insurance claims, and apartment building sales. The staffing crisis, now under Senate scrutiny, may delay or derail key housing programs just as a Government Accountability Office audit looms.
According to an internal document obtained by NPR, Chris Clow of HousingWire reports that HUD is drafting new policies to impose time limits and work requirements on recipients of federal rental assistance. The proposed changes could significantly disrupt the rental market, as housing experts warn they may reduce stability for low-income renters. If implemented, these policies could increase turnover and strain affordable housing demand, adding pressure to an already tight market grappling with affordability challenges and limited supply.
Scott Carpenter of Bloomberg reports that a group of Democratic senators has urged the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to pause any plans to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They warn that a rushed public offering could raise mortgage rates and benefit wealthy investors over everyday homebuyers. The FHFA confirmed it is studying potential paths forward but emphasized that any move would prioritize market stability and avoid rate hikes. Critics argue that privatization could worsen housing affordability and reward hedge funds holding large stakes in the mortgage giants.
Finally, Maria Volkova and Jody Godoy of Reuters report that five U.S. Senators, including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, are pressing federal antitrust officials to scrutinize Rocket Companies’ $1.75B acquisition of Redfin and $9.4B deal for Mr. Cooper. Lawmakers warn that combining one of the largest mortgage originators, the top servicer, and a leading real estate platform could reduce competition, limit consumer choice, and raise housing costs. With Redfin shareholders set to vote, concerns are mounting over the growing consolidation of power across the homebuying and mortgage ecosystem.
Luxury real estate
Anushna Prakash of Zillow reports that the U.S. luxury real estate market is cooling. Still, home values remain resilient, rising 2.7% year-over-year. This is double the 1.4% gain seen in the broader market. The typical luxury home now commands $1.8 million, with listings down 5% in April and pending sales down 12% month-over-month, a sharp reversal from the 30% jump seen in March. High mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are dampening activity, even among cash-rich buyers, but limited supply and desirable property features continue to prop up prices. Luxury homes remain, on average, about five times the price of a typical house, down from 5.5 times in 2020.
Source: Zillow (June 2025)
At the local level, California still dominates the high end, with San Jose ($5.9M), Los Angeles ($5.1M), and San Francisco ($4.8M) topping the list. Buffalo holds the lowest median at $835K, while Miami, Austin, and Tampa are the only major metros where luxury values declined year-over-year. Midwest markets like Cincinnati and Columbus are surging, with home values up over 6% and properties selling in just five days. In Miami, the luxury-to-mid-market price gap is most extreme, with high-end homes worth 9.4 times more than the city’s median, starkly contrasting with cities like Hartford and Portland, where the ratio is under 3x.
Jing Pan on Yahoo! Finance reports that ultra-wealthy Americans are pouring money into luxury real estate as a safer, more stable alternative to volatile stocks. $10M+ home sales are surging in markets like Palm Beach (+50%), Aspen (+43.75%), L.A. (+29%), and Manhattan (+21%). Buyers like Dan Herbatschek and billionaire David MacNeil are snapping up multimillion-dollar properties, viewing high-end real estate as a long-term inflation hedge and premium asset that holds value regardless of market swings.
That said, Brooklee Han of HousingWire reports that time on market is proving “toxic” for ultra-luxury home listings. Concierge Auctions’ 2025 Luxury Homes Index identifies days on market as the most significant factor impacting sale price. The longer a high-end property lingers on the MLS, its perceived value drops, fueling debate around policies like Clear Cooperation that require broader listing exposure.
