Lily Katz and Asad Khan of Redfin report that the housing market now has 1.9 million active home listings against just 1.5 million buyers. This is an “unprecedented” 490,041-unit (34%) surplus of sellers, which Redfin says will likely nudge national home prices down 1% by year-end 2025. Thirty-one of the 50 largest metros are already buyer’s markets, led by Miami, where sellers outnumber buyers roughly 3-to-1; Newark remains the strongest seller’s market, while St. Louis is the most balanced. Condos tilt even further to buyers with an 83% seller surplus, versus 28% for single-family homes. 

Source: Redfin (June 2025)

“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall. Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar…But as sellers see their homes sit longer on the market and notice fewer buyers coming through on tour, more of them will realize that the market has adjusted and reset their expectations accordingly.”

Dana Anderson, also of Redfin, notes that the median mortgage payment hit $2,860 in late May, just $25 below its all-time high, as 6.86% average rates and a 1.9% year-over-year rise in sale prices squeeze affordability, pushing pending sales down 1.7% and driving a record-high 14% contract-cancellation rate. Yet conditions are tilting toward buyers: new listings are up 3.9% and total inventory up 11.9%, giving house hunters more leverage, while prices are already falling in 11 of the 50 largest metros (biggest drops in Oakland, Dallas, and Jacksonville). 

Orphe Divounguy of Zillow reports that March’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index dropped 0.3%, trimming annual price growth to 3.4% (down from February’s 4%) while both the 10- and 20-city composites also cooled. Zillow’s Home Value Index also registered its slowest March appreciation since 2018 and now projects a 1.4% dip for 2025. On the supply side, new listings jumped 9% year-over-year and total inventory surged 19%, driving the share of price-cut listings to a six-year March high. By April, 25% of Zillow-listed homes saw reductions and active inventory hit 1.2 million, the most since August 2020. 

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report showing that April’s Pending Home Sales Index slid 6.3% month-over-month, 2.5% below last year, with contract signings down in every region except the Midwest, where a 5.0% monthly drop still left sales 2.2% higher year-over-year. The West saw the steepest monthly fall (-8.9%), followed by the South (-7.7%), the Midwest (-5.0%) and the Northeast (-0.6%). NAR blames elevated mortgage rates for dampening demand despite inventory at five-year highs, noting that buyers’ best shot is in the Midwest, where the typical $313,000 price sits 25% below the national median.

Rents

Zumper released its monthly rent report, showing median rents increased 0.2% month-over-month to $1,520 for one-bedrooms and 0.3% to $1,907 for two-bedrooms, putting year-over-year gains at 1.1% and 2.3%. Big-city demand is back, with one-bed rents up 10% in New York City and 11.9% in San Francisco, where $3,300 hasn’t been seen since May 2020, while all surveyed Colorado markets posted annual declines thanks to swelling inventory. Milwaukee leads mid-tier growth at 7.9% amid tight supply, and Washington, D.C,. climbs to the eighth-priciest slot (tied with Los Angeles at $2,300).

Source: Zumper (June 2025)

Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades comments: “As May marks the start of peak moving season, the uptick in our national rent prices aligns with typical seasonal trends…With the surge in rental supply beginning to taper off and demand expected to remain strong, we anticipate continued upward pressure on prices in the coming months.”

Apartment List’s rent report shows that the national median rent ticked up 0.4% in May to $1,398, yet year-over-year rents remain 0.5% lower and sit 3.1% (-$44) below the August 2022 peak, though still 22% above January 2021 levels. Softening demand and a record-high 7% vacancy rate, driven by the largest wave of new apartment completions since the mid-1980s, are tempering the usual spring surge. Rent growth has decelerated from 0.6% in March to 0.4% in May. Sixty-nine of the 100 biggest cities logged monthly increases, but markets awash in new supply continue to slide, led by Austin (-6.3% YoY), Denver (-4.8%), and Phoenix (-3.1%).

Source: Apartment List (June 2025)

Molly Boesel of Multi-Housing News reports that single-family rents climbed for a third straight month in March 2025, reversing December’s trough, with national rents up 2.8% year over year for detached and attached units diverging by segment. High-end properties rose 3.5% while low-end rents gained just 2.1%. Markets awash in new supply showed the most softness, Dallas dipped -0.5%, whereas Los Angeles, buoyed by post-wildfire demand, led the nation at 6.8% growth, followed by Washington, D.C., at 6%. Overall, the new rental inventory influx gives tenants fresh bargaining power even as national rent momentum firms.

Suzanne Blake of Newsweek reports on Realtor.com data showing that median rents for studio-to-two-bedroom units fell 1.7% year-over-year in April 2025 across the 50 largest metros. This reduces the typical monthly bill by $60 from the August 2022 peak and eases the rent-to-income ratio to 23.4% (down from 24.7% a year earlier). Greater housing supply and some pandemic-era migrants moving out are driving the slide, leaving just five big metros, led by New York, Los Angeles, and Boston, where the median household still spends more than HUD’s 30% affordability threshold on rent.

Rate lock effect

Hannah Jones of Realtor.com found that nearly one-quarter of millennials (24%) plan to buy a home within six months, up from 15% last September, yet high mortgage rates remain the chief obstacle. One-third of all respondents and roughly half of Gen Z (55%) and millennials (47%) have delayed purchasing because rates hover above 6 percent, which only 2% say they’d accept. Most shoppers (63%) need sub-5% financing, while 82% of existing mortgages already sit at 6% or below, reinforcing today’s “locked-in” feeling. 

Source: Realtor.com (June 2025)

Reportedly, buyers expect to tap personal savings (57%), investments/retirement funds (15%), or family help (12%), and 25% of imminent buyers anticipate dipping into retirement accounts. On the selling side, 50% of mortgage-holders feel rate-locked; 78% believe rates will stay flat or rise over the next year, with expectations of higher rates pushing 43% to list sooner versus 20% who would wait, whereas 69% who foresee falling rates say that would spur them to sell—underscoring how rate outlooks drive both buyer and seller behavior.

Sami Sparber of Axios reports that April listings surpassed pre-pandemic norms in 20 of the 50 largest U.S. metros (up from 18 in March), yet the mortgage “lock-in” effect persists. 62% of all outstanding loans carry rates below 4%, and the share hits 71% in California, Utah, and North Dakota, while most mortgages originated in the past three years exceed 6%. The average 30-year rate hasn’t fallen under 6% since 2022 and is unlikely to budge much this year, so many buyers and homeowners remain sidelined even as home prices continue to climb.

Source: Axios (June 2025)

Finally, Jeff Andrews of HousingWire reports on Optimal Blue data showing that mortgage lock activity is firming: total lock volume rose 3.2% from March, with purchase locks up 7.5%, though still 5% below April 2024. Refinances shrank to 21% of volume, cash-out refis fell 3.2%, and rate-term refis plunged 15.4%. The product mix shifted toward FHA loans, now 20.2% of locks, as non-agency shares slid to 16.4%, signaling greater investor caution.