Last Updated on October 3, 2026

Zillow’s October 1 analysis projects 2026 on-market rent growth of 3.1% for single-family homes and 2.2% for apartments, with both forecasts revised upward. For rental owners, that is a useful reason to revisit assumptions. There is no evidence that every property can support the same increase, or that the projected growth has already happened.

The practical question is smaller than the headline: what will a qualified tenant pay for your specific property, on your next lease date? Start there before turning a forecast into an asking rent.

What Zillow is forecasting

The figures describe expected year-over-year growth in on-market rents for 2026, not a recommended renewal increase or a forecast for the next 12 months from today; Zillow labels both property-type projections as 2026 forecasts. Keep that time horizon attached to the numbers whenever you use them.

The report says forecasts have been revised higher over the past few months. Use that change in direction to revisit a conservative leasing plan, rather than replacing local evidence with a more optimistic national number.

Zillow also says new-lease rents have been growing at their fastest pace of 2025–2026. That is the broader context behind the more positive outlook. It is still a national observation, not a property-level pricing study.

Market rents and shelter inflation are different measures

The forecast appears in a report about CPI shelter inflation, but the 3.1% and 2.2% figures refer to on-market rent growth, not the CPI rent series. Mixing those labels would change what the numbers mean.

Zillow’s model explicitly connects on-market rents with CPI shelter components, incorporating expected market-rent growth, assumptions about renewal adjustments, and renter mobility. The model, therefore, considers both changing market conditions and how tenants encounter those conditions.

For an owner, the distinction is practical. Use market information to investigate the asking rent and your own records to understand the lease already in place. Neither a national forecast nor a broad inflation reading substitutes for comparable properties and the terms of a particular tenancy.

A stronger outlook can coexist with a softer month

Apartment List’s September report provides a useful counterweight: national median rent fell 0.1% during the month to $1,388 and remained 0.4% below a year earlier. Its multifamily vacancy measure declined to 7%, from a February peak of 7.3%.

Those figures are not a scorecard proving Zillow right or wrong. Apartment List uses a same-unit repeat-transaction rent model, while Zillow’s selected figures are forward-looking projections. Different datasets, scopes, and periods deserve different labels.

The lesson is to resist the binary version of the story: either rents are falling everywhere or landlords suddenly have unlimited pricing power. For your next renewal, test what is happening in your own submarket rather than choosing whichever national number supports the increase you wanted.

Build the renewal case from the property up

Start with a short list of genuinely comparable rentals. Match the location, property type, number of bedrooms, condition, parking, and included amenities as closely as possible. Record the asking rent, concessions, and when you checked each listing, so the comparison has context.

Keep asking for rents separate from confirmed lease outcomes. A listing tells you what an owner hopes to receive, not necessarily what a tenant agreed to pay. If recent leased comparables are available, use them to challenge your assumptions rather than treating every advertised price as a completed transaction.

Then compare the proposed renewal with the current lease and your operating budget. Would retaining a reliable tenant at a smaller increase be preferable to turning the unit? Check applicable notice requirements and rent restrictions before choosing an amount or sending an offer.

Price the vacancy risk, not just the increase

Consider a simple illustration: a $50 monthly increase adds $600 over a fully collected 12-month lease. One vacant month at $2,000 rent means $2,000 in forgone rent, before turnover expenses. These are hypothetical amounts, not a prediction about your property.

That example is not an argument against increases. It is a reminder to compare complete scenarios rather than celebrating the extra $50 while overlooking the potential gap between tenants.

Write down three options: renew at the current rent, renew at a locally supported increase, or prepare for a new tenancy. Estimate collected rent, vacancy, concessions, and turnover costs for each. Keep any hoped-for appreciation or future rent growth out of the guaranteed-income column.

Use the forecast as a prompt, not a price list

The useful response to Zillow’s stronger outlook is a better review process, not an automatic percentage increase. Refresh the comps, check the current lease, and compare renewal economics with a realistic turnover scenario.

A forecast can tell you where to look more closely. Your property still has to make the case.