Last Updated on August 15, 2026
If you have been waiting for a moment when the housing market tips clearly in the buyer’s favor, it just did. Here is what Redfin’s July count means for anyone underwriting an acquisition this quarter.
The headline number
There were an estimated 966,752 active homebuyers in the U.S. in July, down 2.5% from June and the lowest count on record, according to Redfin’s July buyers-vs-sellers report. Against roughly 1,462,921 sellers, that puts sellers ahead of buyers by 51.3%, just shy of December 2025’s all-time high of 51.8%. In absolute terms, there are nearly half a million more sellers in the market than buyers.
Redfin defines a buyer’s market as any metro where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. By that definition, 39 of the 49 major U.S. metros Redfin tracked (nearly 80%) were buyer’s markets in July. In 34 of those 39, the seller surplus grew from June to July. The tilt is deepening.
Where the leverage is largest
Five metros stood out for the biggest seller surpluses:
- Miami, FL: 154% more sellers than buyers (up from 134% in June, a 20-point jump).
- Nashville, TN: 151% (up from 135%).
- Houston, TX: 130% (up from 114%).
- San Antonio, TX: 116%.
- Austin, TX: 112%.
Not coincidentally, these are all metros with active homebuilding pipelines that expanded during the pandemic boom. Redfin also flagged Seattle (+19 points to 65% seller surplus) and Fort Worth (+19 points to 86%) as the metros seeing the fastest month-over-month shifts in buyer leverage.
On the other end of the spectrum, six metros were still seller’s markets, all in the Northeast or Upper Midwest: Nassau County NY (36% fewer sellers than buyers), Newark NJ (-21%), Providence RI (-17%), Milwaukee WI (-15%), New Brunswick NJ (-13%), and Montgomery County PA (-13%). Home prices in those six metros rose 4.2% year over year in July, compared with 2.3% across the 39 buyer’s markets. Supply matters more than the national narrative.
Why buyers are stepping back
The obvious answer is the mortgage rate. The Freddie Mac 30-year hit 6.69% in early August, the highest level in over a year, pushing the median monthly housing payment past $2,600 for the first time since the spring. The less obvious reason is uncertainty. As Redfin senior economist Asad Khan put it in the report, “uncertainty around whether the Fed will hike rates and this summer’s rising mortgage rates are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
The result: fewer sellers pulled listings than expected, but way fewer buyers entered the market. That gap is why the surplus widened even as absolute seller counts also fell.
What this means for landlord-buyers
If you are underwriting acquisitions right now, three things follow from this data:
- Negotiate on credits, not just price. In markets with 130%+ seller surplus, sellers who need to move will accept concessions they would have refused in 2023. Repair credits, seller-paid closing costs, and rate buydowns are all on the table. Repair credits and price reductions cleanly reduce your cost basis; seller-paid buydowns can be structured as deductible prepaid interest if handled correctly. Talk to your CPA before signing.
- Widen your target list. When there are 10 sellers for every buyer, you can run numbers on 20 properties instead of two. Use a deal-analysis tool to pre-screen for cash-on-cash and cap rate before writing an offer, and only submit on the top decile.
- Watch the calendar. Redfin’s Khan called the window between now and Labor Day “a potential sweet spot” because motivated sellers will negotiate before early-fall buyer traffic rebounds. If you are going to act, act in August, not October.
One caution: buyer’s market conditions do not automatically mean good rental economics. Miami, Nashville, and Houston all have elevated new supply that is also pushing rents down or flat. Underwrite rents to current effective levels, not what the same property collected in 2023.
The bottom line
The buyer count is at a record low, sellers outnumber buyers by nearly half a million, and 80% of major metros favor buyers. For anyone with cash and a plan, the negotiating leverage is real. The question is not whether to act, but where the local supply-demand picture also supports the rents and expenses your model depends on.
