Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal writes that Treasury yields keep grinding higher, with the recent $16 billion 20-year auction drawing lukewarm demand and lifting benchmark rates to fresh highs. The 10-year closed at 4.595% (near 4.6%, highest since February) and the 30-year jumped to 5.089% (first breach of 5 % since 2023). Goldfarb notes several reasons for the increases:
- Fading recession fears as some tariffs are easing, sapping demand for Treasurys;
- Persistent worries that new tariffs could stoke inflation;
- Swelling fiscal deficits and heavier future bond issuance tied to possible tax-cut extensions;
- Parallel yield rises in Germany and Japan; and,
- Lingering doubts about sustained foreign appetite for U.S. debt.
Source: Wall Street Journal (May 2025)
Diana Olick of CNBC reports that Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit jolted bond markets Monday, driving the 10-year Treasury yield up and pushing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 7.04 %, the highest since April 11. The jump, crossing the critical 7% threshold, immediately cooled housing activity: April pending home-sales contracts fell 3.2% year-over-year, and the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) sentiment index slid to its lowest reading since late 2023.
Paulo Trevisani of the Wall Street Journal notes that, despite a late-session pullback, Treasury yields finished the week higher as investors fretted over a widening deficit and fresh tariff turbulence (50% on EU goods, 25% on imported iPhones). The 30-year yield climbed 14.1 bps to 5.036%, the 10-year added 7.1 bps to 4.508%, and the two-year inched up 0.5 bps to 3.985%, with the long end rising fastest.
Paul Olmsted of Morningstar notes that fixed-income yields are hovering near 20-year highs, with 10-year Treasuries oscillating between 3.60% and 4.80% and sitting at 4.50% in mid-May after Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating to Aa1. Wider credit spreads—about 100 bp for high-yield bonds—now lift broad junk-bond yields above 7 %, offering equity-like return potential with less volatility.
Chloe Taylor of CNBC reports that U.S. government bonds’ “relentless” sell-off occurred as investors digest a U.S. credit downgrade and swelling fiscal-spending plans. Some experts warn the U.S. is edging into an “emerging-markets trap,” with roughly $14 trillion, half of publicly held Treasurys, soon maturing and likely to be refinanced at higher rates, a cycle that could stoke inflation and debt burdens. The spike is prompting some investors to diversify away from Treasurys. At the same time, parallel moves abroad (Japan’s 30-year yield hitting 3.184 % and its 20-year 2.598 %, both 25-year highs) underscore a global re-pricing of long-dated sovereign debt.
Real estate listings
Stephanie Reid-Simons of Real Estate News reports that Redfin will begin enforcing its ban on “pocket” listings (properties publicly marketed but not posted to a multiple-listing service) in September 2025, aligning with the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) new delayed-marketing add-on that all MLSs must adopt by Sept. 30. The move follows Zillow’s crackdown, which will start flagging non-compliant agents on May 28 and blocking a third offending listing (and any after) from Zillow and Trulia for the life of the listing agreement beginning June 30.
“A recent survey of MLS and Realtor association leaders took a look at the bigger picture, revealing concerns about how NAR has handled the decision to add a delayed marketing option to the Clear Cooperation policy. Most respondents (54%) disapproved of NAR’s actions, with 20.7% approving and 21.7% offering no opinion. Some expressed frustration with “rushed, vague” communications from NAR. Others viewed it as politically and legally sensible.”
Indeed, Brooklee Han of HousingWire reports that Zillow will roll out its new Listing Access Standards policy in two steps: starting May 28, agents will receive notices for any listings publicly marketed but not entered into an MLS, and beginning June 30, repeat non-compliant listings will be blocked from Zillow’s platforms. The phased approach aims to enforce MLS parity and give agents time to correct listings before the full ban takes effect.
Meanwhile, the National Mortgage Professional reports that Redfin shareholders are suing to block the June 4 shareholder vote on Redfin’s March 9 merger pact with Rocket Companies, which would convert each Redfin share into 0.7926 Rocket Class A shares and remove Redfin from public trading. The class action claims Redfin’s proxy is “materially incomplete,” hiding key conflicts, namely Goldman Sachs’ role as lender in Rocket’s $1.15 billion credit facility and its equity stakes (2.51% of Redfin, 0.27% of Rocket), and omitting crucial inputs in Goldman’s discounted-cash-flow analysis that valued Redfin at $6.37–$17.30 per share.
New home sales
Orphe Divounguy of Zillow reports that April new-home sales blew past forecasts, climbing 10.9% month-over-month to a 743,000 SAAR, 3.3 % above April 2024, even as the median sale price slipped 2% to $407,200. Tighter inventory (504,000 units, 8.1 months’ supply versus 9.1 in March) and aggressive builder tactics (29% cut prices and 61% offered incentives) helped offset affordability headwinds. Lower mortgage rates lured buyers in every region except the Northeast. With recession fears easing and builders keeping discounts modest (average 5%), the sector is on pace for more total sales in 2025, provided rates don’t spike again.
Snejana Farberov of Realtor.com comments on the data, noting that the increase in new home sales is primarily thanks to a growing share of sub-$400K builds. The South, accounting for roughly two-thirds of transactions, led with sales up 11.7% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, while the Northeast plunged 14.8% and 25.8%, respectively. Faster sales cut supply from 9.1 to 8.1 months (504,000 units), yet un-started homes (119K) now exceed completed inventory (117K), hinting at builder caution.
The increase in new home sales could be attributed to more attractive financing, according to Keith Griffith of Realtor.com. Data shows that buyers of newly built homes paid an average mortgage rate of 6.1% in 2024 versus 6.6% for existing-home buyers. The savings, tied with 2023 for the largest in at least a decade, reflect builders’ aggressive rate buy-downs, often funded through in-house or partner lenders as closing incentives. With market rates stuck above 6% since late 2022, these below-market offers have become a key lever for moving inventory in today’s strained affordability landscape.
Source: Realtor.com (May 2025)
Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group now sees 2025 single-family home sales closing at 4.92 million units, 4.24 million of them existing homes, after cutting its mortgage-rate outlook to 6.1% by the end of 2025 and 5.8% by the end of 2026. The May forecast also pegs real GDP growth at 0.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 (Q4/Q4), noting that the lower-rate view is the chief driver behind the upgraded sales expectations.
That said, Diana Olick of CNBC reports that April’s existing-home sales dipped 0.5% from March to a 4 million SAAR, the slowest April since 2009 and 2% below a year earlier. This occurred as shaky consumer confidence kept activity stuck at roughly 75% of its pre-pandemic norm despite seven million new jobs. Inventory improved to 1.45 million units (up 9% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year), equating to 4.4 months of supply, the most in five years, which helped limit price growth. The median sale price edged up just 1.8% to a record-high $414,000, the slowest appreciation since July 2023.
